Incipia blog

A Framework for Predicting Mobile Marketing Profitability

Gabe Kwakyi | October 28, 2018

Posting the slides from a presentation given at App Growth Summit SF.

In it, I explain how to use Excel's scatter plot trend line equations as a framework to predict whether your marketing activities are on track to turn a profit.

Slides available via Slideshare.

Specifically included:

  • the difference between metrics and KPIs (don't use metrics to predict profitability)
  • which KPIs are best used as predictors (they're not all treated equal for every business model)
  • the differences between excel trend lines and which to use (hint: for most folks it's best to stick with more simple equations like linear)
  • assessing accuracy using the mean absolute percentage error (it's a better measure of predictive power of your model than R-squared)
  • caveats of using a prediction model: where it can break down (there are loads of reasons)
  • 3 other examples of how to apply the framework:
    • Predicting CPI
    • Long-term retention rate
    • Assessing whether week 0 ROAS is the best predictor

That’s all for today! Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more posts breaking down mobile marketing concepts.

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Incipia is a mobile marketing consultancy that markets apps for companies, with a specialty in mobile advertising, business intelligence, and ASO. For post topics, feedback or business inquiries please contact us, or send an inquiry to projects@incipia.co